想像美國這個民主發源地，成為諸如中國或北韓這樣獨裁政權的想法，聽起來可能很荒謬。它是不可能發生的 - 不僅民眾不會容許！人民會有所警覺！
The idea of America, the fountain of democracy, becoming an authoritarian regime like China or North Korea often seems ridiculous. It just couldn't happen there - people wouldn't stand for it! People would notice!
問題是，我們曾見證1930年代，在希特勒領導下的德國，突然間由民主政治轉為獨裁政權。而今在美國上演的情節異常地似曾相識。且讓我們來檢視一下跡證。
The problem is, we have seen a democracy suddenly change into an authoritarian regime before - Germany in the 1930s under Hitler. And what has been happening in America is remarkably similar. Let's examine the evidence.
川普及他所屬的共和黨一直持續公開地以多種主要方式抨擊民主制度。首先，川普一直在攻擊新聞自由，稱其為“fake news 假新聞”。這是其他獨裁領導者常見的行徑，隨後被利用來作為限制監禁反對派記者的手段。川普一向對提出不合意問題的記者十分無禮。
Trump and his Republican party have been openly attacking democracy in a number of key ways. First, Trump has been attacking the free press - calling them 'fake news'. This is something other authoritarian leaders routinely do, and later use to imprison reporters who report against them. Trump is downright rude to reporters who ask him questions he does not like.
其次，川普一直在抨擊投票過程。他聲稱民主黨選民比共和黨選民更常利用的郵寄投票方式，是一種舞弊行為。目前沒有任何證據可以支持他的論點，但若川普無法勝選，他可能會利用這個藉口宣稱選舉不公。一旦選舉被宣告有弊，川普或許就可以利用最高法院來判定選舉結果。而法院應該是公正不阿的，不是嗎？
Second, he has also been attacking the voting process. He claims mail-in voting, which is used more by Democrat voters than his own Republican voters, is fraudulent. There is no evidence for this, but Trump may be able to use this excuse to declare the election unfair if he does not win. If the election is declared unfair, Trump may be able to use the supreme court to decide the result of the election. The court should be fair though, right?
很遺憾的是，答案是錯的。川普剛在最高法院新增了一位認同他觀點的法官。此時，最高法院的多數法官，都是傾向川普一派。川普掌控了法庭，而掌控法庭通常也是威權國家的關鍵特徵。
Well, sadly no. Trump has just added a new judge to the supreme court who favors his views. A majority of judges in the supreme court are now on Trump's side. He controls the courts. Controlling the courts is also a key feature of an authoritarian state.
令人驚訝的一點是，川普及其政黨不再費心於政策面。他們並未對第二任期提出任何新政策，他們並未做出任何承諾改善美國的未來。反之，他們希望民眾出於恐懼而投票給他們，出於對中國、外來者、對美國失去掌控權、和出於對民主黨的恐懼而交付選票。他們如今只是在販賣恐懼，這點幾乎與希特勒如出一轍 - 兜售恐懼（出於對猶太人、對德國積弱而敵人日益強大的恐懼）。他們在意的只有權力，而非他們能利用那些權力有何作為。
Shockingly, Trump and his party no longer care about policy. They have not proposed any new policies for the second term - they are not promising to do anything.to improve America in the future. Instead, they hope people will vote for them just because they are afraid - afraid of China, afraid of foreigners, afraid America is losing power, afraid of the Democrats. They are now just selling fear. And this is pretty much what Hitler did - sold fear (fear of Jews, fear that Germany was weak and its enemies were strong). All they care about is power - not what they can do with that power.
川普向來自豪地宣稱自己不是政客、也非典型候選人。他的確不是。事實上，在他四年的任期中對美國做出的改變很少。他打了一場幾乎全盤皆輸的貿易戰、也蓋了一些造價不菲的高牆、幫富人減了稅。差不多就做了這些事。他沒興趣治理國家，只想當總統。而希特勒原來也不是什麼政治人物，也非典型的候選人。他本來是個畫家。
Trump has always been proud to say he is not a politician. Not a normal candidate. It is true he is not. He has actually made very few changes to America in his four years. He has fought a trade war and largely lost, he has built parts of an expensive wall, and given the rich a tax cut. That's pretty much it. Because he is not really interested in governing, just being president. Hitler was also not a politician, not a normal candidate. He was a painter, originally.
希特勒和川普還有很多共同點。希特勒和川普所屬的政黨起初都不希望他們成為總統。然而當他們眼見這兩人如何善於煽動選民時，不得不同意擁護這兩名外來者。希特勒和川普都善於蠱惑人心、擅長煽動眾怒。希特勒和川普利用偏激的支持團體引發動亂、造成社會對立，爾後將這些問題歸咎於對手。川普現在正是如此，事實上他極端的支持者已被揭發佯裝成拜登的支持者。希特勒和川普都曾聲稱自己是重建秩序的唯一途徑，名符其實 - 製造問題，成為救世主。
And there is more that Hitler and Trump share in common. Both Hitler's and Trump's parties did not want them for President at first. They only agreed to these outsiders being their champions when they saw how good they were at exciting voters. Hitler and Trump are both demagogues skilled at whipping the public into anger. And both Hitler and Trump made use of extremist groups of supporters to cause riots and sow discord in society - problems that they then blamed their opponents for. Trump is doing this right now - his violent supporters have actually been caught pretending to be Biden supporters. Hitler and Trump both then claimed to be the only way to restore order. Create the problem, then be the solution.
希特勒最後的算計 - 當他的支持者燒毀德國國會大廈時，他咎責於共產黨員，時謂 “Reichstag Fire 國會縱火案”。隨後，他宣布進入緊急狀態，中止政府運作並奪取權力。川普尚未有類似“國會縱火案”的契機，讓他藉以中止政府、永久奪權。若他在下週大選中失利，我們是否會看到這一幕？
Hitler's final, finishing move, was when his supporters burned down the legislature in Germany, which he blamed on Communists, the so-called 'Reichstag Fire', After that, he declared an emergency, suspended the government, and seized power. Trump has not yet had his 'Reichstag Fire' - the moment that lets him suspend the government and seize power permanently. Will we see this if he loses next week's election?
或許川普不需要 'Reichstag Fire 國會縱火案' 相助，他曾戲言要延長總統任期 ( 如普丁和習近平所為 )。他可以這麼做嗎？或許吧！然而即使他做不到 ( 川普現在不年輕了 )，現在已有傳言他的兒子將在2024年參選。他有可能建立起像北韓一樣的金氏王朝、讓他的家族繼續掌權嗎？
But perhaps he does not need a 'Reichstag Fire', Trump has joked about extending the term Presidents can stay in office (something Putin and Xi have done). Could he do this? Perhaps. But even if he couldn't (and Trump is not young now), there is already talk of his son running for office in 2024. Could he create a dynasty like the Kims in North Korea? Keep the family in power?
川普和希特勒的最大差異處在於，如果川普落選，他可能將因逃稅和其他罪行入獄；而希特勒卻無相同顧慮。川普可以說是不顧一切地渴望能繼續掌權，這點讓他變得十分危險。若他的兒子繼續接班，或許也有能力可以保護川普。
Trump has one big difference with Hitler. If Trump loses the election, he may well go to prison for criminal tax evasion and other crimes. Hitler did not have to fear prison if he lost. Trump is highly, desperately motivated to stay in power - and that makes him very dangerous indeed. If his son followed him, he could also protect his father.
值得慶幸的是，目前尚有希望。川普的多數選民都是未受大學教育的男性白人。在美國，這個族群規模不大也正在流失中，預期未來影響力更將逐漸縮小。看來已有很多人意識到其中隱含的危機，川普下周也許會大敗。但是要慎防，共和黨對於自己無法勝選可能早已了然於胸，因而他們必要時可能會用盡一切手段、鑽研各種法律漏洞來保住權力。在選舉舞弊上他們會做到什麼程度，下週可見分曉。若川普繼續掌權，無疑將帶來巨大衝擊，它可能是美國民主終結的開端。如果美國不再是真正的民主國家，那麼要捍衛一個自由民主台灣的想法也將變得更加困難。
Fortunately, there is still hope. Most of Trump's voters tend to be white males without college education. In America, this group is small and shrinking, and going to shrink more in future. It looks like enough people have seen through the danger, and Trump will probably lose big next week. But watch carefully. The Republican party knows they cannot win the most votes really - instead they must use every trick in the book, every legal loophole, to keep power. How far they will go to cheat an election we will find out next week. It will be an immense shock if Trump retains power - and it may be the beginning of the end for democracy in America. And if America is no longer a true democracy, it will be much harder to defend the idea of a free and democratic Taiwan too.
全世界的命運懸而未決直到下週方見分曉，且讓我們期待一切順利。
Next week is one of those moments when the fate of the world may hang in the balance. Let's hope it goes well.